It's difficult to open a newspaper or scroll through topics on social media without seeing something about next month's Budget. I'm as guilty as anyone else of writing about it, but it can be hard to resist adding your own tuppence worth to the mix because it is hard to remember a more eagerly awaited Budget Day that this one, such is the frenzy of speculation and (we assume, lobbying) over it.
The Chancellor will be getting sick of being told what he should be doing, but the overwhelming theme is tax rises. Clip a little from entrepreneur's relief, freeze the personal allowance, add a little to inheritance tax, introduce a wealth tax, reduce pension tax relief. The idea seems to be to make suggestions of what to do to raise revenue without anyone noticing it is being raised.
But then the Institute of Fiscal Studies today published its research and says exactly the opposite of what everyone else has being saying: don't raise taxes!
At least not yet. But don't cut them either.
You have to feel a bit sorry for Mr Sunak who, until today, will have had a wide variety of sources from which he could pick ways to raise revenue; and now he has a voice (which may or may not turn out to be a lone voice) suggesting exactly the opposite.
The closer we get to Budget Day, the higher the number of ideas there seem to be about what will (or should) happen, but there is a greater variety of ideas than you might normally expect; and from totally opposite ends of the spectrum. Certainly they are being talked about more.
In the end, the only thing that we can count on with this Budget is that it will keep everyone guessing until the very last minute.
...substantial tax rises should not be part of the coming Budget. Mr Sunak should only commit to permanent spending rises ... if he is sure of an appetite for larger subsequent tax rises